In both 19 the Tories used a change in leaders to combine the two and win. It will be “Stick with what you know” versus “It’s time for a change”. The next general election will be a contest between the two most basic slogans in politics. John McDonnell: A robust result – but Labour still has more to do Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political editor

It’s not a happy memory for the Conservatives – but it does suggest that things can change quickly. In the meantime, some in the party are trying to see the positive by reminding themselves of 2017 – when Theresa May excelled in the local elections only to lose her party’s majority in the general election that followed. The prior vote was an indicator that the voters were not sold on Neil Kinnock. In the 1992 election that followed, the Tories won. In the 1989 European election, the Green party won 14% of the vote and Labour came out on top. But it could also be read as a sign the electorate is not yet sold on Keir Starmer.

Now this could pave the way for anti-Tory tactical voting come the general election. One ray of light for Tory MPs is that, while the Conservative party is suffering most, the votes aren’t all going to Labour – with Liberal Democrats, Greens and independents enjoying a good night. Widespread losses across the board – including in several cabinet ministers’ home territories, such as those of Oliver Dowden and Grant Shapps – show how far the party still has to go to have a chance of turning the tide. The prime minister and his team have been trying to build a sense of momentum that they are closing the gap with Labour.

Sunak’s recovery narrative has taken a hit. But even if this comes to pass, Rishi Sunak will not emerge unscathed from his first significant electoral test since entering No 10. The hope in CCHQ is that later results, including gains in the Midlands, create more of a balanced picture – and if that fails the king’s coronation quickly moves the news agenda on. “You know something’s gone wrong when the expectation-management figure becomes the reality,” sighed one Tory MP – following early morning suggestions from the polling expert John Curtice that the Conservatives could be on course to lose 1,000 seats. Yet the first wave of results still managed to be worse than anticipated internally, as the party lost support to Labour in various “red wall” areas and to the Liberal Democrats in the traditional Tory shires. Few in the Tory party expected the local election results to be anything other than painful.

The Shadow Garden by Andrew Matthews